CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Bark beetle species are recognized as one of the most important tree mortality agents in coniferous forests worldwide, and many are known invaders. Non-native trees planted in novel habitats often exhibit exceptional growth, in part because they escape herbivore pressure from their native range. Increasing accidental introductions of forest pest species as a consequence of international trade, however, is expected to diminish enemy-release of non-native forest trees. Consequently, there is need to characterize patterns of forest herbivore species invasion risks at global scales. In this study we analyze the establishment potential of 64 North American Scolytinae species in the Southern Hemisphere. We use climate-based ecological niche models (MaxEnt) to define the potential distribution of these species in the Southern Hemisphere. Our model predicts that all of the pine-growing regions of the Southern Hemisphere are capable of supporting some species of North American Scolytinae, but there are certain ?hotspot? regions ?Southeastern-Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Peru and Southwestern-Australia- that appear to be suitable for a particularly large number of species. The species with the highest predicted risk of establishment were Dendroctonus valens, Xyleborus intrusus, Hylastes tenuis, Ips grandicollis, Gnathotrichus sulcatus, and Ips calligraphus. Given that global commerce is anticipated to continue to increase, we can expect that more Scolytinae species will continue to establish outside their range. Our results provide information useful for identifying a global list of potential invasive species in pine plantations, and may assist in the design of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing pest establishment in Southern Hemisphere forest plantations.

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