Markers of disease evolution: The case of tuberculosis,

JUAN P. APARICIO, ANGEL F. CAPURRO \& CARLOS CASTILLO-CHAVEZ

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

Elsevier

Año: 2002 p. 227 - 237

0022-5193

Abrupt changes in environmental conditions broadly understood to include demographicand social dynamics can seriously impact the local or global disease dynamics of apopulation. These changes in the evolutionary landscape, which may occur over relativelyshort time-scales, are very likely to play a critical role in disease evolution. The potentialimpact of demographic, social and epidemiological shifts on the evolution of tuberculosisepidemics in the United States over the past century and a half is the main subject of thisarticle. Evidence is provided to support the hypothesis that the observed substantial decreasesin the incidence of active tuberculosis are the result of abrupt reductions in the rates ofdisease progression.