Climate Change and the rising incicidence of dengue in Argentina

LÓPEZ, MARÍA SOLEDAD; GÓMEZ, ANDREA; MÜLLER, GABRIELA; WALKER, ELISABET; ROBERT, MICHAEL A.; DOMINGUEZ, DIANA; CERRUDO, CAROLINA; ESTALLO, ELIZABET L.

Congreso; XIV Congreso de Meteorología; 2022

Climate can affect the transmission dynamics, geographic spread, and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases (Rocklöv and Dubrow 2020). In the past few decades, many mosquito-borne diseases have expanded their distributions from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world (Tomasello et al. 2013; Rey 2014; Robert et al. 2019; Robert et al. 2020; López et al. 2021). The factors that contribute to the global expansion and intensification of dengue virus (DENV) and other arboviruses include global-scale travel, rapid and unplanned urbanization, and changes in climate leading to increased temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns (Gubler 2002, 2011; Hii et al. 2009; Butterworth et al. 2017; Huber et al. 2018). The Americas is one of the most severely affected regions, with the southern limit of DENV transmission located in Argentina, South America (WHO 2020). Large-scale global dengue epidemics are associated mainly with the presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are also responsible for transmitting other emerging and re-emerging arboviruses such as yellow fever, Zika, and chikungunya (Lambrechts et al. 2010). In Argentina, the geographical distribution of Ae. aegypti is expanding. Climate conditions, especially temperature, influence the global spread of the vector, the species´ life history characteristics, and the acceleration of the virus transmission capacity (Boggs et al. 2012; Bhatt et al. 2013; Carrington et al. 2013; Kraemer et al. 2015; Caldwell et al. 2021). In addition, heavy precipitation and associated flooding events are projected to become more intense and frequent in some regions of South America (e.g., Lovino et al. 2018a, 2018b). These projected changes in climate conditions are predicted to affect the distribution and competence of Ae. aegypti and other vectors and have a potentially significant impact on the epidemiology of dengue globally (Rocklöv and Tozan 2019). This work aims to analyze the evolution of the incidence of DENV in Argentina from its re-introduction in 1998 until the most recent and largest epidemic in 2020, and its relation to climate change. We described the trend and anomalies of temperature and precipitation across the country. Finally, we analyzed the number of months and days with suitable temperature conditions for DENV transmission in representative cities.