Numerical Weather Prediction applied to photovoltaic generation: sensibility analysis of radiation forecasting in the River Plate area

J. G. CAÑELLAS (EXPOSITOR); M. L. MAYOL; E. WOLFRAM; A. D. OTERO

Buenos Aires

Conferencia; 2nd LA SDEWES Conference; 2020

SDEWES center

Considering the expected increase in the share of Photovoltaic (PV) generation in the Argentine National Power System, it becomes necessary to assess the solar radiation forecasting capability in the country within a time horizon ranging from a few hours to several days. In this work, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to predict PV generation related variables is analyzed. To accomplish this, WRF simulations with different configuration options are compared against high quality ground measurements. Simulations are run for selected periods of time belonging to two years, 2015 and 2017. It was found that, under cloudy conditions, errors in representation are of the same order of magnitude than total daily irradiance. On the other hand, in some clear sky days there is a constant and parameterization independent bias both in cold and warm seasons.