Economic
Voting
in
Latin
America:
Evidence
from
the
Latinobarometers,
 1996­2004


MICHAEL LEWIS-BECK; MARÍA CELESTE RATTO

Quebec city

Workshop; Workshop on elections, electoral behavior and the economy in Latin America.; 2011

Université Laval

Economics
 and
 elections
 have
 become
 a
 major
 research
 area
 in
 political
 science.
 
 For
 the
advanced
industrial
democracies,
the
classic
economic
voting
hypothesis
has
been
 consistently
 supported.
 
 Oddly
 enough,
 little
 is
 known
 about
 the
 economic
 vote
 in
 transitional
 democracies.
 Our
 purpose
 is
 to
 assess
 the
 link
 between
 economics
 and
 elections
 in
 Latin
 America,
 utilizing
 survey
 data
 (1996‐2004)
 from
 sixteen
 countries.
 Two
 key
 research
 questions
 are
 addressed:
 the
 link
 of
 economic
 perceptions
 to
 economic
reality,
and
the
link
of
sociotropic
retrospective
economic
evaluations
to
the
 vote.
 A
 fully
 specified
 model
 of
 vote
 choice
 is
 estimated,
 across
 Latin
 American
 democracies
in
a
balanced
survey
pool.

Special
care
is
taken
with
regard
to
the
issues
 of
economic
measurement,
estimation
and
endogeneity.

The
results
demonstrate
that
 those
 Latin‐American
 citizens
 with
 a
 more
 positive
 perception
 of
 the
 economy
 have
 a
 greater
probability
of
voting
for
the
incumbent.
In
this
sense,
the
results
contribute
to
 the
understanding
of
the
accountability
mechanism
in
Latin
America.