Simulation of livestock settlement dynamics in arid environments

EDUARDO BRINGA; EMMANUEL MILLAN; SILVANA GOIRÁN; JULIETA ARANIBAR

La Falda

Congreso; 10° Congreso Regional de Física Estadística y Aplicaciones a la Materia Condensada.; 2012

FAMAF, UNCórdoba

Settlements in arid environments are becoming more widespread due to population growth. In this study we present a model of livestock settlement dynamics in an area where conservation goals of human culture (indigenous land rights) and natural resources (protected forests) overlap. Without an understanding of the interactions among humans and the environment, conservation and sustainability goals cannot bemet. We postulate that human activities in arid areas are strongly influenced by surface and groundwater availability, which control settlement densities, spatial distribution, and degradation. We evaluate this hypothesis with simulations of settlement dynamics, based on environmental factors that may determine the establishment and subsistence of livestock settlements: proximity to rivers, roads, old river beds and other settlements, water table depth, and vegetation type. We also model vegetation degradation around settlements. We considered simple model cases and also a realistic scenario for settlements in the Monte desert, Argentina. Simulation results were compared with real settlement patterns and vegetation maps.We found that distance to rivers and old river beds is critical to explain the current distribution of settlements, while vegetation type had a lower importance. The simulated vegetation, including degradationaround settlements, matched the spatial distribution of remotely sensed vegetation, although with higher covers for extreme vegetation classes (degraded areas and well conserved woodlands). The model, whichcan be run on a PC in the order of seconds for a given set of parameters, could be a useful tool to simulate the effects of land use changes on settlement dynamics and natural resources in arid environments.