Honey agri-food chain in Argentina: Model and simulation

MANUEL CARLEVARO; JAVIER QUAGLIANO; SANDRA FERNÁNDEZ; HUGO CENTRÁNGOLO

NEW MEDIT. MEDITERRANEAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT

CIHEAM

Lugar: Bari, Italia; Año: 2004 vol. 3 p. 47 - 54

1594-5685

This work will show the dynamics involved in the study of the honey agri-food chain in Argentina. The method explained would show how to model and simulate complex feedback mechanisms allowing the behaviour analysis of a determined system over a period of time. These simulations will allow quantitative predictions for future scenarios to take place, being a useful tool to test diverse policies.We chose the honey agri-food chain as our study objective since it's a simple product. It does not require industrial processing and is an export-oriented activity.The system model is elaborated from a casual loop diagram, and after comparing some variables of interest with historical series, simulations are made in order to determine the impact of diverse future scenarios, like the effect of the devaluation, China behaviour in markets, and climatic and technological scenarios.The relation of system dynamics and supply chain management is reviewed, and the usefulness of system dynamics as a tool for predicting different scenarios and for supply chain redesign is highlighted.