Predicting Land Use and Environmental Changes in Argentina's Pampas Region Under Varying Price and Climatic Conditions Using an Agent-Based Model

FERRARO, D.O.; GHERSA, F.; CASTRO, R.D.

Congreso; European Conference on Ecological Modelling (ECEM 2023); 2023

In this work, we applied an agent-based model (AGRODEVS) previously calibrated andvalidated for cropping systems in the Pampas region (Argentina) to set environmentalthresholds associated with land-use and land-cover change dynamics (LUCC). The main goalwas to understand the landscape-level environmental consequences of the simulated LUCC.Firstly, we defined a 625-agent grid to represent the current crop cover and managementregime of the most productive agricultural area in Argentina (Pergamino, Buenos Aires). Then,we simulated 45 years under contrasting conditions of prices (three levels), climate (threelevels), and technological level (three levels) to assess changes in the regional cover of threeland-uses (corn, soybean and the double crop wheat/soybean). Additionally, we evaluated theeffects of these LUCC simulations on 1) the use of non-renewable energy, 2) the return ofenergy invested, 3) the ecotoxicological risk of pesticides, 4) the efficiency in the use ofrainwater and 5) the aboveground carbon balance. The results showed that price relationshipswere the main factor associated with LUCC, placing climate conditions in a subordinateposition in the explanation of LUCC. Under conditions of a low Soybeans/Corn price ratio, thecultivation of corn became dominant in the landscape (regardless of the climatic scenario),thus determining relatively low ecotoxicological risk values and high water use efficiencies.Conversely, a high Soybeans/Corn price ratio determined the dominance of the doublewheat/soybean crop, resulting in high ecotoxicological risks in the landscape, along with lowwater use efficiency. For the set of all scenarios, the levels of renewable energy use remainedvery low, although the aboveground carbon balance almost always met the previously setenvironmental targets. Beyond the average values, the use of AGRODEVS showed variability inthe performance of the agents, exhibiting LUCC trajectories that, coupled with climate, price,and technological level scenarios, were able to avoid trade-offs between LUCC and theappearance of symptoms of deterioration in the environmental variables studied. From futurework, it will be possible to detect these desirable trajectories and select them as sustainable inthe long term.