CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Different works have shown that the north - central zone of Argentina has a high rate of very intense convective systems with respect to the rate of hailstones, intense precipitations and extreme events (Zipser et al. [2006], Cecil and Blackenship [2012], among other). Satellite evidence, including from TRMM, indicates that the convection in this region is unique in its intense vertical structure, broad horizontal organization, and lightning production.On the other hand, the lightning activity in a thunderstorm is related to the kinetic energy of the thunderstorm updraft. Strong updrafts provide a suitable environment favoring the mixed-phase cloud and precipitation processes, which associated with the electric charge transfer mechanism, can lead to the formation of cloudscale charge centers. Many studies over the past several decades (Williams [1999], Schultz, [2011].) have attempted to correlate trends in lightning to severe weather occurrence, because the total flash rate rapidly increases several minutes prior to the onset of severe weather. Based on these studies we have developed GeoRayos. GeoRayos is a algorithm based on previous study from Schultz, [2011]), and validated in Argentina (Nicora et al. [2015]) to anticipate the development of severe weather, based on data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN, see http://wwlln.net) and clustering this information within a given spatial domain and a given lapse time. The clustering is done by the Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm (Ester et al., [1996]) The DBSCAN was chosen due to its ability to detect arbitrarily. Each cluster that was determined by DBSCAN is considered a Storm-Cluster (SC) with an area equal to the minimum convex polygon that overlays all the lightning associated with the cluster.After the identification of the SC, GeoRays classified them as Sparse and Dense according to the number of lightning associated with it. The classification in Sparse or Dense is based on the amount of lightning data associated with the SC in the last two minutes (Storm Threshold). If the amount of lightning is less than the Storm Threshold, the SC is considered as Sparse; otherwise, it is classified as Dense. The Dense SC is the candidates to develop severe weathers and will be classified as Severe Storms according to the time variation of the amount of lightning inside it. If the lightning rate increases over the last 10 minutes the longer the last night will be the next 10 hours. In this case, Lightning Jump (LJ) is identified and SC is classified as Severe. Otherwise, the Dense SC classification remains.The present work presents a study of the characterization of between 2006-2016 on the region [28-35] S of latitude and [60-70] W of longitude by means of the study of Lightning Jump generated by means of the algorithm GeoRayos. This zone is in line with the experiment and it is hoped to be able to provide geostatistical data of the LJ as a proxies of severity.