Factors influencing guanaco distribution in southern Argentine Patagonia and implications for its sustainable use

JULIETA PEDRANA; JAVIER BUSTAMANTE; ALEJANDRO TRAVAINI; ALEJANDRO RODRIGUEZ

BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION

SPRINGER

Año: 2010 p. 1 - 14

0960-3115

PROOF Abstract The Guanaco (Lama guanicoe) has suffered a progressive decline in numbersThe Guanaco (Lama guanicoe) has suffered a progressive decline in numbers 10 because of unregulated hunting and poaching by an assumed competition with sheep.because of unregulated hunting and poaching by an assumed competition with sheep. 11 Inadequate livestock management, including keeping sheep numbers above carryingInadequate livestock management, including keeping sheep numbers above carrying 12 capacity, has led to a degradation of the Patagonian steppe. Recently, interest has growncapacity, has led to a degradation of the Patagonian steppe. Recently, interest has grown 13 towards a reduction in sheep density and diversification of extractive activities. Guanacotowards a reduction in sheep density and diversification of extractive activities. Guanaco 14 populations could be potentially amenable to a number of sustainable uses. Our aim was topopulations could be potentially amenable to a number of sustainable uses. Our aim was to 15 investigate the factors that determine guanaco distribution in southern Argentine Patagoniainvestigate the factors that determine guanaco distribution in southern Argentine Patagonia 16 and to generate a predictive cartography at the regional scale. We hypothesized thatand to generate a predictive cartography at the regional scale. We hypothesized that 17 guanaco distribution could be determined by primary productivity, terrain ruggedness,guanaco distribution could be determined by primary productivity, terrain ruggedness, 18 human disturbance and poaching, and competition with livestock. Guanaco surveys werehuman disturbance and poaching, and competition with livestock. Guanaco surveys were 19 performed from vehicles using a road survey method. To analyze the relationship betweenperformed from vehicles using a road survey method. To analyze the relationship between 20 guanaco occurrence and potential predictors we built Generalized Additive Modelsguanaco occurrence and potential predictors we built Generalized Additive Models 21 (GAMs) using a binomial error and a logistic link. We found that guanaco occurrence(GAMs) using a binomial error and a logistic link. We found that guanaco occurrence 22 increased in the less productive and remote areas, far from cities and oil camps, andincreased in the less productive and remote areas, far from cities and oil camps, and 23 decreased in regions with high sheep density. These results suggest that guanacos tend todecreased in regions with high sheep density. These results suggest that guanacos tend to 24 occur where human pressure is lower. One way to promote guanaco conservation would beoccur where human pressure is lower. One way to promote guanaco conservation would be 25 to highlight the economic value of guanacos under the regulations imposed by a sustain-to highlight the economic value of guanacos under the regulations imposed by a sustain- 26 able exploitation of their populations. The predictive models developed here could be aable exploitation of their populations. The predictive models developed here could be a 27 useful tool for the implementation of conservation and management programs at theuseful tool for the implementation of conservation and management programs at the 28 regional scale.regional scale.