Distribution and richness of amphibians under different climate change scenarios in a subtropical region of South America

SCHIVO, FACUNDO MAURO; BAUNI, VALERIA; KRUG, CECILIA PAMELA; QUINTANA, RUBÉN D.

Applied Geography

Eselvier

Año: 2019 vol. 103 p. 70 - 89

0143-6228

Amphibians are a valuable indicator group to study potential impacts of climate change (CC) because reproduction isclosely linked to the availability of fresh water. Climate projections for the humid subtropical region of South Americapredict an increase in both temperature and rainfall. In this context, we aimed to assess the changes in the distributionrange of amphibian species and the variation in their richness. In addition, we attempted to determine the mostvulnerable species in terms of the extent of habitat loss and the overlap of optimal species distributions by contrastingpresent and future species range. We modelled the current and future distribution of 55 amphibian species using aninductive approach to model the ecological niche with three different algorithms. We used WorldClim data for currentclimate and IPPC5 climate projections from Global Climate Model for two greenhouse gas concentrations at 2050.Depending on the CC scenario, between 48-55% of the species showed a decrease in their optimal distribution, and9-10% of them are likely to be affected by further population fragmentation. We identified three types of patterns ofchange in the geographical distribution of the optimal areas: (I) reduction, (II) displacement, and (III) increase in theirdistribution range. Future new areas with favourable conditions may not be reached due to the low dispersiontendency of amphibians. For this reason, it is important to identify those current favourable areas that are maintainedin the different future scenarios. In this sense, this study allows to highlight priority areas for the conservation of thestudied species and to identify those being highly vulnerable to the predicted scenarios. Our results contribute to theknowledge of how different future climates scenarios could affect the conservation of the studied amphibian speciesand provide key information for the development of strategies and public policies for management and biodiversityconservation.