Modelling population dynamics based on experimental trials with genetically modified (RIDL) mosquitoes

NATIELLO, MARIO A.; SOLARI, HERNÁN G.

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Año: 2020 vol. 424

0304-3800

Recently, the RIDL-SIT technology has been field-tested for control of Aedes aegypti. The technique consists ofreleasing genetically modified mosquitoes carrying a ?lethal gene?. In 2016 the World Health Organization(WHO) and the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) recommended to their constituent countries to testthe new technologies proposed to control Aedes aegypti populations. However, issues concerning effectivenessand ecological impact have not been thoroughly studied so far. In order to study these issues, we develop anecological model. It presents interdependent dynamics of mosquito populations and food in a homogeneoussetting. Mosquito populations are described in a stochastic compartmental setup, in terms of reaction normsdepending on the available food in the environment. The development of the model allows us to indicate somecritical biological knowledge that is missing and could (should) be produced. Hybridisation levels, releasenumbers during and after intervention and population recovery time after the intervention as a function ofintervention duration and target are calculated under different hypotheses with regard to the fitness of hybridsand compared with two field studies of actual interventions. This minimal model should serve as a basis fordetailed models when the necessary information to construct them is produced. For the time being, the modelshows that nature will not clean non-lethal introgressed genes.