The dynamics of pertussis transmission: evaluating the impact of control measures through mathematical modelling

FABRICIUS, GABRIEL

San Pablo

Workshop; Workshop on Modelling of Infectious Diseases Dynamics; 2020

ICTP-SAIFR (South American Institute for Fundamental Research)

Pertussis or whooping cough is a highly contagious respiratory disease whose incidence has been increasing for the past two decades in several countries despite the highly extended vaccination. The reasons for this resurgence are a matter of discussion and, while trying to understand this complex problem, new strategies that include more boosters for adolescents and adults have been adopted in many countries in an attempt to improve the control of the disease. However, the impact of these measures on infants (the risk age group) is not clear. In this context mathematical models are being increasingly used to study the dynamics of the disease transmission and to estimate the impact of different control strategies. In this talk I will review our contributions to understand the dynamics of pertussis transmission and the effect of several control measures. Through mathematical modeling we have assessed the impact of the adolescent and pregnant women boosters introduced in Argentina in 2009 and 2012 respectively [1,4] and also have estimated the impact of reducing delays in the administration of the primary dose [2,3]. I will discuss how mathematical modeling (in spite of the uncertainties in parameters values) allows quantitative comparison between different measures and help to suggest where efforts should be directed. And, on the other hand, how comparison of model results with epidemiological data allows to check different assumptions about the transmission process, even when strong and age dependent underreporting could be present.[1] "Modeling pertussis transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of an adolescent booster in Argentina". G.Fabricius, P.Bergero, M.Ormazabal, A.Maltz and D. Hozbor. Epidemiology and Infection 141, 718-734 (2013).[2] "Mathematical modeling of delayed pertussis vaccination in infants". P. Pesco, P.Bergero, G. Fabricius and D. Hozbor. Vaccine 33, 5475-5480 (2015). [3] Potential impact of changes in the schedule for primary DTP immunization as control strategy for pertussis. P. Bergero, G. Fabricius, D. Hozbor, H. Theeten and N. Hens. The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal. 37(2):e36?e42 (2018)[4] Pertussis epidemiology in Argentina: trends after the introduction of maternal immunization. G. Fabricius, P. Martin Aispuro P, P. Bergero, M. Gabrielli, D. Bottero, and D.Hozbor. Epidemiology and Infection 146, 858-866 (2018).