CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Background: Whooping cough or pertussis, is a respiratory disease that is most severe ininfants. Before childhood vaccination was introduced in the 1950s, pertussis was a major causeof infant mortality worldwide. The disease is now recognized as a frequent infection not only forinfants but also for adults. The reasons for this epidemiological situation and strategies fordisease control are matters of debate in the scientific community. Under this context, themathematical models are being used increasingly as a tool not only for analysis but alsopredictions in order to contribute to the knowledge of this complex problem.Methods: In this study we present a compartmental model that in a simplistic way allow todescribe the propagation of pertussis in Argentina and to assess the impact of changes in thevaccination schedule in the disease control. The model here presented considers that pertussisexposure through natural infection or vaccination induces an immune response that preventssevere disease and assumes that these protective effects are temporary due to waning ofimmunity.Results: Our study points out that the dose given at age 11 (recently introduced in Argentinianvaccination schedule) would decrease the incidence of the disease in the age group from 11 to13 years old in a proportion of around 40%.. However, this reinforcement would have a muchlower impact (less than 5 percent) for children under 1 year of age who are the most vulnerablegroup.Conclusions: Our study suggests that an effort directed towards vigilance that improves thecoverage of the 2 month´s dose would produce a much higher impact in reducing the incidenceof pertussis in the youngest child. Furthermore, the cocoon strategy could also reduce thedisease

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