An Eco-Epidemiological Model for Dengue an Yellow Fever. Applications to temperated regions

OTERO MJ, FERNANDEZ ML, SOLARI HG

Aberdeen UK

Conferencia; Conference on Dynamics in Sistems Biology; 2009

Dengue and urban Yellow Fever are diseases produced by arbovirus,family flaviviridae genus flavivirus. The main vector in the Americas is the mosquito Aedes aegypti which is now present in the Americas in tropical, subtropical and temperated regions reaching the latitude 38o44’S. Dengue fever follows with some year of delay the expansion of the mosquito. We developed a SEIR/SEI stochastic model for the vector and the disease, apt for use in temperated regions as well as tropical and subtropical  regions. The model predicts the possibility of large Dengue epidemics in Buenos Aires city when Dengue-infected people arrive early in the Summer season, while for late arrivals in Summer or Autumn it predicts the local circulation of the virus will not reach epidemic character. Buenos Aires city, 34o36’S, is the third largest urbanisation in South-America. This approach was used to successfully reproduce the daily mortality in the historical Yellow Fever epidemic of 1871. Soon after the model was completed, a stream of Dengue infected people arrived to the area (March- April) resulting in the local circulation of the virus as expected by the time of arrival. We will discuss the model and its relation with empirical data.