IFIMAR   20926
INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES FISICAS DE MAR DEL PLATA
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Effects of epidemic threshold on spread epidemic disease
Autor/es:
C.LAGORIO; M. V. MIGUELES; L. A. BRAUNSTEIN; P. A. MACRI; E. LÓPEZ
Lugar:
Punta del Este, Uruguay
Reunión:
Conferencia; MEDYFINOL 2008; 2008
Resumen:
We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random
networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations
that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to
calculate the average fractional size <MSIR>of an epidemic, we
find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster Pinfty
is an upper bound to <MSIR>. For small values of sc, Pinfty is no
longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be
computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not
always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the
disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain Pinfty as the
average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of
the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold
for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR
propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well
characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real
networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the
choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure
epidemics.