Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation

LUCAS D. VALDEZ; HENIO H. A. REGO; HARRY E. STANLEY; LIDIA A. BRAUNSTEIN

Foz de Iguacu

Workshop; XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Física da Matéria Condensada; 2015

Brazilian Physical Society

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa, causing thousandsof deaths. When developing strategies to slow or halt the epidemic,mathematical models that reproduce the spread of this virus areessential for understanding which variables are relevant. We study thepropagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia by using a model in whichpeople travel from one county to another in order to quantify theeffectiveness of different strategies. For the initial months in whichthe Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the diseaseinto the counties predicted by our model are in good agreement withWorld Health Organization data. We also find that reducing mobilitydelays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks,and as a consequence, is insufficient to contain the epidemic. Finallywe study the effect of a strategy focused on increasing safe burials andhospitalization under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July2014 and (ii) one in mid-August, which was the actual time that stronginterventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had beenpursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been reduced by threemonths and the total number of infected individuals reduced by 80%,when compared to scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) isthat the spreading will cease by mid-spring 2015.