IFIMAR   20926
INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES FISICAS DE MAR DEL PLATA
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading
Autor/es:
M. DICKINSON; C. LAGORIO; F. VAZQUEZ; P. A. MACRI
Lugar:
Boston
Reunión:
Conferencia; Horizons in Emergency & Scaling; 2011
Resumen:
We study the critical e®ect ofquarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network ofsocial contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptibleindividuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infectedneighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptibleindividuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual,we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phasetransition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating aphase (w < wc) where the disease reaches a large fraction of the popu-lation, from a phase (w >= wc) where the disease does not spread out.We ¯nd that in our model the topology of the network strongly a®ectsthe size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degreeand heterogeneity of the network. We also ¯nd that wc is reduced ifwe perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability isproportional to the degree of infected nodes.
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