An integrated strategy to define the optimal energy infrastructure under fossil resources availability uncertainty

JULIO FLORES; MARÍA ANALIA RODRIGUEZ; MARIA LAURA CÚNICO; A. R. VECCHIETTI

Atlanta

Congreso; 2014 AICHE Annual Meeting; 2014

AICHE

Fossil fuels have been the main source of energy to produce goods and services. Even today, most countries present an energy matrix based on this non-renewable and contaminant sources.  However, energy demand is increasing, reserves will be not available at some point in the future and the extraction and exploration costs will increase substantially. In addition, there is an increasing interest for producing cleaner energy leading to developments in renewable energy supply and production. Nevertheless, substituting fossil source by other sources requires new and efficient technologies, well oriented politics and capital investments. Several forecasts can be found in the literature regarding non-renewable resources availability (Ediger et al., 2006; Shafiee and Topal, 2009 and 2010).  However, the future of non-renewable sources is full of uncertainty. There are possible oil wells located in places very difficult to explore, in which the quantity or quality of the oil is completely unknown, but also, new findings and technologies such as shale gas (Wang and Rong, 2010), suggest a more optimistic future. In this work, this uncertainty is considered a key element in the definition of the optimal energy infrastructure plan.