Long-term variation of precipitation over two Southern Hemisphere locations linked to natural and anthropogenic forcings

TERESITA HEREDIA; ANA G. ELIAS

Cusco

Congreso; X COLAGE; 2014

ALAGE

The precipitation over Tucuman (26.85° S; 65.2° W), Argentina, and Sidney (33.8° S, 151.2° E), Australia, present a similar long-term variation pattern. In this work anthropogenic and solar forcings are qualitative and quantitatively analyzed as possible drivers of this behavior. Due to the nature of the processes that lead to precipitation, the discernment between solar and anthropogenic effects, and the link between precipitation and solar activity, are highly complex and hard to detect. The anthropogenic effect is analyzed through results already obtained by other authors. Regarding solar forcings a statistical analysis is made using monthly mean precipitation time series together with solar and geomagnetic activity indices. The aim of this work is to convey the importance of recognizing and quantifying the different forcing acting on precipitation which sometimes can be barely evident from a solely statistical analysis.