A Stochastic Spatial Dynamical Model for Aedes Aegypti

M J OTERO; SCHWEIGMANN, N.; H G SOLARI

BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY

SPRINGER

Año: 2008

0092-8240

We develop a stochastic spatial model for {em Aedes aegypti}populations based on the life cycle of the mosquito and itsdispersal. Our validation corresponds to a monitoring studyperformed in Buenos Aires city. Lacking information with regard tothe number of breeding sites per block, the correspondingparameter ($BS$) was adjusted to the data.  The model is able toproduce numerical data in very good agreement with field resultsduring most of the year, the exception being the fall season.Possible causes of the disagreement are discussed. We analyzed themosquito dispersal as an advantageous strategy of persistence inthe city and simulated the dispersal of females from a source tothe surroundings along a three years period observing that severalprocesses occur simultaneously: local extinctions, recolonizationprocesses (resulting from flight and the oviposition performed byflyers) and colonization processes resulting from the persistenceof eggs during the winter season. In view of this processwe suggest that eradication campaigns in temperate climates shouldbe performed during the Winter time for higher efficiency.