A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)

FERNÁNDEZ, M. L.; M J OTERO; SCHWEIGMANN, N.; H G SOLARI

Papers in Physics

Fundación Ciencias Exactas- UNLP

Año: 2013 vol. 5 p. 1 - 25

1852-4249

We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellowfever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as comparedto simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates thebiology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages ofthe disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic outbreak.After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on initial conditions andecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependenceon initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity,to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: nal death toll, day of the yearwhen the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality,showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss thetruthfulness of the presently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showingthat there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.