Modelling factors that determine higher-education performance and estimate future educational outcomes

MUSSO, M. F.; CASCALLAR, E. C.; KYNDT, E.

Conferencia; 8th Biennial Conference of EARLI SIG 1: Assessment & Evaluation; 2016

EARLI

Education has been impacted by the shift from an industrial society to an information- based environment. We are now shifting again to an ?innovation-based? society which requires what Sternberg (2000) calls ?successful intelligence?. This is particularly true in the area of higher education, where outcome oriented reforms and pressure to obtain more valid information on students? outcomes, highlights the need to adequately model their performance and the factors that participate in those outcomes, while also understanding and being able to predict the results of the educational programmes. As the practice of educational assessment evolves, developments in cognitive science and psychometrics along with continuing advances in technology lead to new views of the nature and function of assessment (Dochy, Segers & Cascallar, 2003; Braun, 2005). New methodologies and technologies, and the emergence of predictive systems, have focused on the possibility of assessments which use a wide range of data or student productions to evaluate their performance without the need of traditional testing (Boekaerts & Cascallar, 2006). This research presents the application of educational assessments utilizing neural network predictive systems in three studies exploring models for general academic performance and performance in a specific field (mathematics). It introduces the application of these methodologies in education, and evaluates the results and quality of the predictive systems. Results from these methods achieved excellent levels of predictive classification, and facilitate the development of models that take into account cognitive, self-regulation and background factors in a comprehensive fashion, which takes into account all complex interactions. Their impact on the understanding of the processes involved, educational quality and improvement, as well as accountability is highlighted.