INENCO   05446
INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES EN ENERGIA NO CONVENCIONAL
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
capítulos de libros
Título:
On the use of mechanistic and data-driven models in population dynamics: the case of tuberculosis in the US over that past two centuries
Autor/es:
JUAN P. APARICIO & CARLOS CASTILLO-CHAVEZ
Libro:
BIOMAT 2010. International Symposium on Mathematical and Computational Biology
Editorial:
WORLD SCIENTIFIC
Referencias:
Año: 2010;
Resumen:
Population dynamics theory most often addresses
biological questions through its use of simple mechanistic
deterministic or stochastic models. In the context of specific
applications, however, the use of models tailored to fit the case
under study is essential. Most frequently the use of statistical
models of the data are the preferred approach regularly bypassing
the advantages provided by mechanistic dynamical models
parameterized with population-relevant parameters. In this
manuscript we show how data may be used to parameterize what is
often referred as a hybrid model. That is, a mechanistic
data-driven, parameter-scarce, dynamical systems model is fitted
to data with time-dependent population-level parameters. The case
of the tuberculosis epidemic in United States over long-time
scales is used to illustrate this approach. Specifically, a model
is built and used to explore the effects of variations in
transmission and/or progression on the decline of tuberculosis
rates during the twentieth century. This study also makes use of
available data generated over two significantly distinct spatial
scales: one (global) involving the United States and the second
(local) utilizing the tuberculosis data generated by the state of
Massachusetts. The assumption that no changes in progression rates
from latent to active tuberculosis have taken place leads to
conclusion that the maximum rate of variation of tuberculosis
transmission must have taken place before any major medical
intervention were implemented (including the use of antibiotics).
Next, under the assumption of constant transmission rates, it is
shown that the maximum rate of variation in tuberculosis
progression rates must have occurred around the beginning of the
twentieth century, that is, when the maximum variation was
recorded for the mortality rates. These results, among others
discussed in this manuscript, support the view that improved
living conditions must have been the main force driving the
tuberculosis decline over the past two centuries in the United
Stated