Climatic information and decision-making in maize crop production systemas of the Argentinean Pampas

BERT, F.E, SATORRE, E.H., RUIZ TORANZO, F., G.P. PODESTÁ

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS

Año: 2006 vol. 88 p. 180 - 204

0308-521X

In many places, predictions of regional climate variability associated with El Nin˜o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon o.er the potential to improve farmers decision-making, i.e., mitigate negative impacts of adverse conditions or take advantage of favorable conditions. However, various conditions must be met for a forecast to result in enhanced decision-making. First, information has to be relevant to, and compatible with production decisions. Second, alternative options must exist for a given decision and these should result in di.erent outcomes under di.erent climate conditions. Third, decision-makers should be able to evaluate the outcomes of alternative actions. In this paper, we explored these conditions as part of a case study targeting maize production systems in the Argentine Pampas. The decision-making process was described via ‘‘decision maps’’ that (a) characterized the main decisions involved in maize production systems and their timing, (b) identi.ed decisions sensitive to climate, and (c) provided a realistic set of options for each decision under di.erent seasonal climate scenarios. Then, we used crop simulation models to assess the outcomes of tailoring crop management decision-making, i.e., mitigate negative impacts of adverse conditions or take advantage of favorable conditions. However, various conditions must be met for a forecast to result in enhanced decision-making. First, information has to be relevant to, and compatible with production decisions. Second, alternative options must exist for a given decision and these should result in di.erent outcomes under di.erent climate conditions. Third, decision-makers should be able to evaluate the outcomes of alternative actions. In this paper, we explored these conditions as part of a case study targeting maize production systems in the Argentine Pampas. The decision-making process was described via ‘‘decision maps’’ that (a) characterized the main decisions involved in maize production systems and their timing, (b) identi.ed decisions sensitive to climate, and (c) provided a realistic set of options for each decision under di.erent seasonal climate scenarios. Then, we used crop simulation models to assess the outcomes of tailoring crop management 0308-521X/$ - see front matter 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2005.03.007 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2005.03.007 * Corresponding author.Corresponding author. E-mail address: febert@hotmail.com (E.H. Satorre).febert@hotmail.com (E.H. Satorre). to predicted climate conditions. We found di.erences between the options selected by regional advisors for each climate scenario and those that maximized average pro.ts in the simulation exercise. In particular, di.erences were most noticeable in preferred nitrogen fertilization rates. While advisors tended to lower fertilization in response to a forecast of dry spring conditions, associated with La Nin˜a events, the simulation exercise showed a consistent drop in maize yields and pro.ts with low N rates even in La Nin˜a years. Advisors and producers aversion to risk can be determining these di.erences, since the analysis showed that the probability of negative economic results are minimized under their decision rule. The procedure was e.ective to meet some of the conditions required to use climate information and to determine the value of incorporating ENSO-related information to e.ectively improve the maize decision process. However, results suggest that better knowledge of farmers decision rules are necessary when the value of using climatic information is estimated and interpreted. aversion to risk can be determining these di.erences, since the analysis showed that the probability of negative economic results are minimized under their decision rule. The procedure was e.ective to meet some of the conditions required to use climate information and to determine the value of incorporating ENSO-related information to e.ectively improve the maize decision process. However, results suggest that better knowledge of farmers decision rules are necessary when the value of using climatic information is estimated and interpreted. 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: ENSO; Maize; Argentine pampas; Decision map; Value of climate informationENSO; Maize; Argentine pampas; Decision map; Value of climate information F.E. Bert et al. / Agricultural Systems 88 (2006) 180–204 181181