SHTS - Stochastic Hydro-Thermal Simulation

OLSINA, F.; LARISSON, C.

2007-06-01

2007-12-01

Informática (software)

Energia-Electrica

The Stochastic Hydro-Thermal Simulator (SHTS) is a software specially developed for the chronological simulation of an hydrothermal-dominated wholesale electricity market. By massive simulation of scenarios, it allows determining uncertainties affecting markets variables as well as operational states and system reliability: ·         Reliability indices (LOLP, EENS, etc.) ·         Spot power prices ·         Evolution of reservoir levels ·         Hourly dispatch of generation units   The simulations produce a mapping of the system unceratinty, creating probabilistic views into the future for the purpose of operation planning, expansion planning, risk assessment and definition or evaluation of regulation rules. SHTS simulates using stochastic inflow and load series. Also the generators are modeled to consider random failures. The reliability parameters (failure and repair rate) are needed for the simulation.Dual information from a mid-term hydrothermal optimization, like the water value, is used as input data to determine the optimal hourly scheduling policy for the hydrothermal power system. In the current version of SHTS the transmission network is not considered. Monte Carlo simulation method is employed in the system evaluation. By generating a large enough number of samples, SHTS is able to describe the system behavior, not only by mean values but for entire distribution of the stochastic variables. With a powerful report engine, based on the graphics capabilities of Matlab© and MS Excel©, SHTS exhibits simulation results in an easy to understand way, and facilitates the results sharing.