A Parametric Seasonal Model for Extreme Discharge Events in the La Plata Basin based on Climate Indices

MEIS, MELANIE; LLANO, MARÍA PAULA; RODRIGUEZ, DANIELA

Congreso; Student and Early Career Scientists Conference 2021; 2021

Royal Meteorological Society

Monitoring and forecasting the possible occurrence of extreme events is crucial for anycountry. Particularly, this work focuses on the ones that take place in river?s discharges. Wepropose to analyse extreme streamflow events in the La Plata Basin. We start by obtainingthe diphase between NIÑO 3.4, SOI, PDO indices and seasonal discharges. Based on thisresult, we align the series and use the copula method to fit a joint distribution. We end up witha model that is particularly useful for quantifying the probability of occurrence of extremeevents and monitoring their return periods. The results obtained might be useful for thedecision makers, by expanding their set of available tools for assessing options for mitigationof negative impacts related to discharges.