The South China Sea Dispute: A Reflection of Southeast Asia's Economic and Strategic Dilemmas

FLORENCIA RUBIOLO

Davis

Conferencia; East Sea: Context & Conflicts: A Webinar on the East Sea (South China Sea) Spratly Islands Region; 2021

University of California

The asymmetric distribu7on of power in the Asian mari7me region is increasinglyfavoring China, increasing the apprehension of its neighbors that, faced with their evidentvulnerability, fear about Beijing?s inten7ons. In this context, the balance of power is allowing tomaintain the status quo and limit China?s behavior against other coastal countries. Given thedisparity of military and economic power between Southeast Asia and China, this balance canonly be achieved with the interven7on of an extra-regional power, the United States. Therenewed American par7cipa7on as a guarantor of regional security has created new bonds ofstrategic dependence for Southeast Asia, which in turn have economies that mainly depend onChina. The South China Sea conflict is then posing two dilemmas for the region: China?sincreasing economic leverage and Washington?s reac7ve and challenging Indo-Pacific policy.Finally, the regional states will find themselves snared by an unusually complex interlinkage ofissues that will likely result in an even greater loss of autonomy for the SEA claimants in theterritorial conflicts, and a greater vulnerability to China?s coercive economic diplomacy.