Understanding Interplanetary Shock Dynamics in the Inner Heliosphere with New Observations and Modeling Techniques

O. C. ST. CYR; C. HENNING; H. XIE; D. ODSTRCIL; L. MAYS; H. CREMADES; F. IGLESIAS; N. GOPALSWAMY; M. L. KAISER

San Francisco, USA

Congreso; American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010; 2010

AGU

This is a status report of our work predicting interplanetary shock location and strength throughout the inner heliosphere. Shocks accelerate energetic particles, and coronal mass ejection (CME) driven shocks are the primary cause of severe geomagnetic storms. We have evaluated an empirical prediction technique against ENLIL model runs produced at the Community Coordinated Modelling Center (CCMC). The prediction method is a technique based on the kilometric wavelength interplanetary Type II radio emissions measured by Wind/WAVES and described by Cremades, et al., 2007 (hereafter called "kmTII" technique). For a subset of Earth-directed CMEs observed by SOHO LASCO, we have produced multiple ENLIL+cone model predictions of the location of the shock and compared the predicted arrival of at Earth with both the actual arrival and the kmTII prediction. We will report the preliminary results of the comparison in this poster.