Dynamics of Pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus and the Influence of Climatic Variability in Cuba using POMP (2010-2016)

LINARES Y.; LOPEZ M. S.; ORTIZ P. L.; STEWART A. M. ; STOCKS T.; VALDES O.

Trieste

Workshop; Workshop on Mathematical Models of Climate Variability, Environmental Change and Infectious Diseases; 2017

Climate variability is an important driver of seasonal and interannual variability in human health outcomes, in particular respiratory infections by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). RSV generally causes mild respiratory disease (cold-like symptoms), but can be severe in infants and the elderly. Thedisease is transmitted person to person by coughing and sneezing. In temperate climates the outbreaks occur in winter months (fall, winter, and/or spring), in both the northern and southern hemispheres. In tropical climate the infections occur throughout the year, with more often associated with the rainy season. The objective of this work was characterize the seasonal and interannual dynamics of RSV and the potential impact of climate variability on their behavior, to provide an early warning system and tostrengthen health surveillance in Cuba.