Impact reduction of COVID19 in AMBA Part 1: Model identification & validation

GARCÍA-VIOLINI, DEMIAN; M. MOSCOSO-VÁZQUEZ; FABRICIO GARELLI; SANCHEZ PEÑA, RICARDO SALVADOR

Congreso; Congreso Argentino de Control Automático; 2020

Asociación Argentina de Control Automático

Abstract?This work presents the first part of a study focusedon the multilevel control of the population confinement forthe AMBA region to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak. Withthis aim, the models used throughout this study are knownas SEIR/SEIRD and two objectives are sought. Firstly, a timevaryingidentification of the infection rate and its relation with themeasured average mobility in the AMBA is developed. Secondly,a control law is added to regulate the transitions betweenconfinement and normal life, according to five different levels.This work is presented in two parts: this paper (Part 1) coversthe model identification and validation, and the analysis of theimpact on the model of the measured average mobility; while Part2 details the proposed control methodology, which also considersthe plasma treatment from recovered patients. The latter focuseson the impact of the proposed model-based control methodologyon the reduction of the ICU occupancy and number of deaths.