Summer daily extreme precipitation in central-eastern argentina: potencial predictors.

PENALBA O; POGGI, M MERCEDES; BETTOLLI MARIA LAURA

Canmore

Conferencia; 13th International Meeting On Statistical Climatology.; 2016

International Meeting On Statistical Climatology Steering Committee

The main objective of this work was to explore climate and local indices as potential predictors of summer daily extreme precipitation in the center-east of Argentina. The purpose of this analysis was to perform a statistically model based on the relationship found in seasonal and monthly scale. In this region, the occurrence of extreme events has both social and economic relevance since it affect a wide variety of activities, such as agriculture and hydric activities, etc., in densely populated area. To this end, the intensity of seasonal and monthly mean daily extreme precipitation was used, estimated as the rate between the seasonal (December, January and February) and monthly cumulative precipitation, respectively, above the daily 75th percentile and the number of days that recorded this precipitation. Observed daily precipitation data of 30 weather stations of the database CLARIS-LPB for the period 1960-2012 was used. Different climate and regional indices were considered as potential predictors as well as local moisture conditions and temperature in the Atlantic Ocean in regions closer to the area of concern. The relationship between predictors and daily extreme precipitation was studied using the Pearson correlation coefficient with a phase shift up to 6 months prior. Different intra-seasonal signals were found, that led to perform the statistical modeling in a monthly time scale. The statistical modeling of the relationship between the selected predictors and predictand was made based on canonical-correlation analysis (CCA). Finally, the forecasting equation obtained by CCA was calibrated and validated using cross-validation technique.