Does confidence reflect the correctness or the consensus of our choices?

JOAQUIN NAVAJAS; MARIANO SIGMAN; BAHADOR BAHRAMI; OPHELIA DEROY

Aegina

Congreso; Aegina Summer School 2017; 2017

Views that are shared with others are expressed with higher confidence (e.g.,Pescetelli et al, 2016; Koriat et al, 1995, 2016). Most models of decisionmakingregard confidence as an error-monitoring process, and, therefore, not a socialconstruct (e.g., Yeung & Summerfield, 2012). The most popular answer in a crowd is quite often close to the correct answer (e.g., Galton, 1907). But crowds could also fail, especially under social influence (e.g., Mackay, 1841). Here, in a large-scale behavioural experiment, we study whether confidence follows the correctness or the popularity of our choices. We ask whether crowd members are aware of their own wisdom and what is the effect of social interaction and deliberation on confidence.