A probabilistic model for extreme discharge events in the La Plata Basin in connection with climatic oscillations

MELANIE MEIS; MARIA PAULA LLANO

Hanover

Conferencia; Extreme Events - Building Climate Resilient Societies; 2019

The Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry and the Volkswagen Foundation

There is a narrow relation between certain climatic oscillation and extreme hydrological events in several regions of the world. Therefore, any contribution that could be done for quantifying the previous relation is of great interest. In this sense, the principal aim of this work was tostudy extreme discharge events in the La Plata Basin and its relation with certain climatic oscillations considering a probabilistic model. For this matter, a joint distribution between discharge series and shifted climatic indices was obtained by using copula methods. Moreover, it was possible to validate the obtained result in time, and a forecast methodology was generated from it. This forecast was also temporally validated, and a simple alarm system was obtained as a result.This work can be thought as a simple effective approach for monitoring extreme events using climatic oscillations.