The role of ENSO in the seasonal prediction of daily precipitation extremes in the Pampas region

POGGI, M MERCEDES; PENALBA, O.C.; BETTOLLI MARIA LAURA

Guayaquil

Conferencia; IV International Conference on El Niño Southern Oscillation; 2018

CLIVAR

The extreme precipitation events are a distinctive climatic characteristic in the Pampas region, being precisely there where the different phases of the ENSO generate a greater impact in the extreme rain in comparison with any other region of the south of South America (Grimm and Tedeschi, 2009). These events have large social and economic impacts, given that the Pampas region is a highly populated area and concentrates most of the agricultural-livestock activities as well as the port, hydrological and tourist activities.There is a growing need for studies of extreme precipitation events in the region and their relationship with climate forcings. In addition, the low predictability of summer precipitation together with the lack of predictions of extreme precipitation on a seasonal scale are still a big challenge to face. In this context, the objective of this work was to explore and identify predictors of extreme daily summer rainfall on a seasonal and monthly time scales in the Pampas region of Argentina, with the aim of moving towards the inclusion of these relationships in statistical forecast models.