MEAN CLIMATE AND ANNUAL CYCLE IN A REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE EXPERIMENT OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. II: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (2081-2090).

MARIO N. NUÑEZ; SILVINA SOLMAN; MARIA F. CABRÉ

Doz do Iguacu, PR, Brazil

Congreso; 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography; 2006

American Meteorological Society

In this paper, we analyzed the climate changes simulated over Argentina and surrounding countries under two IPCC emission scenarios (A2 and B2) for the period 2081-2090 with respect to the reference period 1981-1990. The simulations are performed with the regional climate model MM5 using forcing lateral boundary conditions from time-slice simulations with the HAdAM3P global atmospheric model. Our primary conclusions can be summarized as follows: The MM5 Regional Climate Model simulate current climate more realistically and project climate change with greater detail. • In all seasons, southern South America undergoes warming in both the A2 and B2 scenarios. Minimum changes in the Mean Temperature are projected for summer and fall over the domain (2.5 - 3.5 ° C in the A2 simulation).In all seasons, southern South America undergoes warming in both the A2 and B2 scenarios. Minimum changes in the Mean Temperature are projected for summer and fall over the domain (2.5 - 3.5 ° C in the A2 simulation). • Maximum changes in the Mean Temperature are projected for winter and spring over the domain (2.5 - 5.0 ° C).Maximum changes in the Mean Temperature are projected for winter and spring over the domain (2.5 - 5.0 ° C). • The precipitation changes vary substantially from season to season and across regions in response to changes in large scale circulations. Seasonal changes in precipitation in Argentina are projected for summer and fall seasons (west and humid Pampas increase approximately 180 mm maximum per season in the A2 simulation).The precipitation changes vary substantially from season to season and across regions in response to changes in large scale circulations. Seasonal changes in precipitation in Argentina are projected for summer and fall seasons (west and humid Pampas increase approximately 180 mm maximum per season in the A2 simulation).