The Asymmetric Effect of the Business Cycle on Poverty in Argentina

DANIEL SOTELSEK; GUIDO ZACK

Bilbao

Conferencia; 15th International Conference Developments in Economic Theory and Policy; 2018

Department of Applied Economics V of the University of the Basque Country (UPV-EHU) and the Cambridge Centre for Economic and Public Policy, Department of Land Economy, of the University of Cambridge

After the crisis of 2002, Argentina started a process of strong recovery of the social indicators, which slowed from 2007 and has stagnated since 2012. The present situation is slightly better in relation to the 1990s, but worse if the comparison is made with the 1980s and the 1970s. Despite the high growth rates experienced until 2011, income distribution was the main cause of improvement in poverty and extreme poverty measures. This article examines the risk of reversing in the coming years part of the recovery achieved. This risk is based on the possible asymmetric effect of the business cycle on social indicators, analyzed through the income and income distribution elasticities of poverty and extreme poverty estimated for the 2003-2017 period.