Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation events in the center of the Platense plain

MIGUEL A. LOVINO; NORBERTO GARCÍA; MARIA DEL VALLE VENENCIO

Santa Fe

Congreso; 2º Congreso Internacional de Hidrología de Llanuras; 2014

Persistent extreme precipitation events (EPE) are the costliest natural disasters. It is necessary to know the historical behavior of these events in the center of the Platense plain to propose and implement risk management policies and adaptation practices. This information is useful to assist decision-making and could help to minimize the negative impacts caused by droughts and floods. The aim of this study is to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of dry and wet hydrological periods in the region, from 1901 to 2010, applying a Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) series at different time scales. The vulnerability of Platense plain to EPE was determined by defining the spatial extent of these periods by means of the percentage of grids points in wet or dry conditions. In addition, the Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) was applied to evaluate the most relevant time series nonlinear components. The results suggest that the most vulnerable region to EPE is the center of the Platense plain, where the most intense and spatially extended hydrological events were registered (defined by the SPI at 18 month), mainly dry periods before 1960 and wet periods from 1970 to 2010.