Probabilistic Economic Evaluation of Nuclear and Gas Options in Countries with Small Electricity Grid

JUANICO; FLORIDO, P.; BERGALLO, J.

Zagreb

Congreso; 3rd International Conference on Nuclear Option in Countries with Small and Medium Electricity Grids; 2000

Croatian Nuclear Society

A comparative economic evaluation between nuclear and gas power plants was carried out. It was focused on discussion of the indirect risks associated to financial, relevant safety and institutional aspects, using a probabilistic technique. The probabilistic results have shown a wide spread on the nuclear behavior whereas they are neglected for gas. This spread, relates to the project schedule complexity, increasing exponentially with the discount rate, and hence, becomes more important for developing countries. Moreover, the probabilistic assessment -rather than classical approach- seems to be the right choice in order to take into account coupled uncertainties related to nuclear projects