INVESTIGADORES
RUIZ Juan Jose
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
A Reginal Ensemble Forecast System for Southeastern South America: Preliminary Assessment.
Autor/es:
JUAN RUIZ, CELESTE SAULO AND EUGENIA KALNAY
Lugar:
Foz do Iguzu, Brasil
Reunión:
Congreso; 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography; 2006
Institución organizadora:
American Meteorological Society
Resumen:
The main objective of this study is to asses the skill of a short range regional ensemble forecast system
over Southeastern South America. The proposed regional ensemble forecast system consists of 9
members: 4 pairs of perturbed forecasts plus a control forecast. The initial and boundary conditions are
perturbed using scaled lagged forecasts (SLAF) from the Global Forecast System operational runs.
These perturbed initial and boundary conditions are used to run a 9-regional forecast ensemble, using
WRF V2.0 mesoscale model.
The skill of the ensemble mean is compared against the skill of the control forecast. Also, in order to
investigate if the ensemble dispersion could be used to forecast the magnitude and distribution of the
control forecast errors, the relationship between these variables is measured over the region.
The root mean squared error between the forecasted fields and the analysis is computed as a function of
forecast times in order to asses the skill of both the ensemble and the control forecasts. When available,
upper air observations are also used in a similar way.
Results suggest the benefit of adopting an ensemble technique to improve regional forecasts. The
verification of other ensemble derived products as the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast over
this region, and implementation of other methods to generate initial condition perturbations are important
issues to be addressed in future work.