Precipitation variability in South America from IPCC-AR4 models. Part I: Climatology

G. SILVESTRI; C. VERA; B. LIEBMANN; P. GONZÁLEZ

Brasil

Congreso; 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology & Oceanogrphy; 2006

American Meteorological Society

The ability of the IPCC-AR4 models to reproduce the seasonal mean fields of precipitation over South America and the precipitation changes projected by these models under a climate change scenario was assessed. The analysis of the climate change outputs for the SRESA1B scenario show a substantial agreement among models in precipitation changes for the period 2070-2099 relative to 1970-1999, mainly characterized by: i) an increase of summer precipitation over the northern Andes and southeastern South America, ii) a decrease of winter precipitation over most of the continent, and iii) a decrease of precipitation along the southern Andes for all seasons.