INVESTIGADORES
OTERO Marcelo Javier
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Comparison of two spatial models of Aedes aegypti population dynamics and control
Autor/es:
MATHIEU LEGROS; MARCELO JAVIER OTERO; HERNÁN GUSTAVO SOLARI; THOMAS SCOTT; FRED GOULD; ALUN LLOYD
Lugar:
Philadelphia
Reunión:
Conferencia; ASTMH (American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene), 60th Annual Meeting; 2011
Institución organizadora:
American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Resumen:
Models of mosquito
populations are crucial tools for guiding the development of successful vector
control programs, particularly in light of the recent development of genetic
control strategies. Models can differ in their level of complexity, which
affects in an elaborate fashion their predictive ability and robustness. In
order to investigate the impact of this complexity in model assumptions, we
present a direct comparison of two detailed, spatially-explicit, stochastic
models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of
dengue, yellow fever, and Chikungunya viruses. Both models describe the
mosquitos biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in their level
of complexity. We compared the predictions of these models in two selected
climatic settings, a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and
a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both
models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbed
conditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in
each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional
resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivity to
environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall), and trace differences to
specific model assumptions, e.g., egg hatching and larval competition. Temporal
dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models
differ more widely under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We model
control interventions in selected areas by simulating killing of larvae and/or
adults. We show that predictions of population recovery differ substantially,
an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and
(direct or delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides
important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae.
aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing
the impact of model complexity on population dynamics predictions in
unperturbed and perturbed conditions