CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Uncertainty is a common feature in global climate model projections for various regions of the world and particularly evident in some parts of South America. It is very important that decision makers are informed about the reliability of future climate projections, so they can adequately design adaptation policies. This work analyses uncertainties in future climate projections for South America for some decades of the 21st century in detail. There are three main sources of uncertainty: internal variability (the result of natural variations occurring in absence of external forcing), inter-model variability (under the same forcing, each model simulates different climate changes) and the variability between emission scenarios (each scenario represents a different amount of future greenhouse gas emissions).