A Combined Assessment of the Global Energy and Sea Level Budgets 1971-2018

PALMER, M.; SMITH, C.; COLLINS, W.; AMOUR, K.; FORSTER, P.; STORELEVMO, T.; SLANGEN, A.; ADALGEIRSDOTTIR, G.; DIAS, F.; DOMINGUES, C.; KRINNER, G.; QUASS, G.; RUIZ, L.; SABITA, A

San Francisco

Conferencia; AGU Fall meeting; 2021

AGU

We present a combined assessment of the global energy and sea level budgets for the period 1971-2018. A consistent set of observations and methods is used to estimate changes in Earths heat inventory and the components of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. An independent estimate of total GMSL rise is based on an ensemble of tide gauge reconstructions and satellite altimeter data. We find that the observed sea level budget is closed for the period 1971-2018, strengthening confidence in the estimate of changes in Earths heat inventory. The assessment of the global energy budget is carried out by combining a Monte Carlo estimate of Earths total radiative forcing and Earths radiative response (based on a net feedback parameter and observations of surface temperature change) with observations of the net change in Earths heat inventory. We find improved closure of the energy budget compared to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and that our budget calculation would accommodate a substantial pattern effect on Earths radiative response, as discussed in recent literature.