Alternative consequences and asymmetry of results: their importance for policy decision-making

IVAROLA LEONARDO

Journal of Economic Methodology

Routledge

Lugar: Amsterdam; Año: 2019 vol. 26 p. 147 - 162

1469-9427

In policy implementation, the knowledge that leads to its success is as necessary as knowledge of its possible alternative paths. Cartwright and Hardie´s (2012) approach accounts for the first, but ignores the chance that a policy may deviate from the desired outcome. The problem lies in whether these deviations lead to substantially negative consequences. The present paper offers a conceptual account meant to complement Cartwright and Hardie´s approach. It is argued that a policy-maker´s decision should not be based exclusively on a policy´s chances of success, but also on the consequences of potential alternative results, that is, on what there is to gain or to lose if a policy succeeds or fails.