CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

AIM To explore a comprehensive conceptual and methodological insight to enhance the predictive power of invasive species distribution models (sdms) directed to determine the potential distribution of invasive species, using an invasive neurotoxic sea slug, pleurobranchaea maculata, as model study case. We aim to identify the regions and specific ports that are environmentally suitable for the introduction and establishment of this species in a global scale.LOCATIONCoastal shores world-wide METHODSWe modeled the potential distribution of p. Maculata using the maxent algorithm, based on environmental predictors directly related to their physical tolerance. We analyzed niche dynamics between native and exotic ranges using a recently developed approach that decomposes and quantifies the different components of niche shifts (coue scheme). We defined a criterion to classify the major ports of the world according to their environmental suitability for p. Maculata, considering the extent of calibration data for the model.RESULTSWe determined that annual mean temperature, annual range in salinity and annual variance in temperature play a key role on the distribution of p. Maculata. We modeled the potential distribution of p. Maculata and recognized regions where environmental conditions are different to those used to calibrate the model. We identified signatures of niche shift related to both unavailable and novel environmental conditions in the invasive compared to the native range that emphasize the idea that novel environmental conditions in potentially invaded ranges can produce niche shifts that hamper the predictive capacity of our model in those environmental conditions. Considering these limitation, we classified all the ports according to our habitat suitability criterion, identifying those that are most suitable for the establishment of p. Maculata.MAIN CONCLUSIONSRealized niche shifts are likely to occur during biological invasions, hampering the ability of species distribution models to predict the potential distribution of an invasive species. We complemented the coue scheme with the identification and distinction of two novel metrics that can provide valuable information regarding the mechanisms that underlie realized niche shifts of invasive species, providing more efficient tools to prevent the spread of invasive species throughout the world.

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