INVESTIGADORES
NUÑEZ Mario Nestor
artículos
Título:
Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020s and 2050´s using the pattern scaling technique: validity and limitations.
Autor/es:
CABRÉ, MARÍA FERNANDA; SILVINA SOLMAN; MARIO N. NUÑEZ
Revista:
CLIMATIC CHANGE
Editorial:
SPRINGER
Referencias:
Lugar: Berlin; Año: 2010 vol. 98 p. 449 - 469
ISSN:
0165-0009
Resumen:
Dynamical downscaling of global climate simulations is the most adequate
tool to generate regional projections of climate change. This technique involves at
least a present climate simulation and a simulation of a future scenario, usually at the
end of the twenty first century. However, regional projections for a variety of scenar-
ios and periods, the 2020s or the 2050s, are often required by the impact community.
The pattern scaling technique is used to estimate information on climate change for
periods and scenarios not simulated by the regional model. We based our study on
regional simulations performed over southern South America for present climate
conditions and two emission scenarios at the end of the twenty first century. We used
the pattern scaling technique to estimate mean seasonal changes of temperature and
precipitation for the 2020s and the 2050s. The validity of the scalability assumptions
underlying the pattern scaling technique for estimating near future regional climate
change scenarios over southern South America is assessed. The results show that the
pattern scaling works well for estimating mean temperature changes for which the
regional changes are linearly related to the global mean temperature changes. For