Performance of a high resolution global model over southern South America

JOSEFINA BLAZQUEZ; MARIO N. NUÑEZ

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD

Lugar: LOndres; Año: 2012 p. 3450 - 3478

0899-8418

This paper evaluates a present climate simulation over southern South America performed with the Meteorological Research Institute/Japanese Meteorological Agency (MRI/JMA) high resolution global model. Main patterns of low and upper-level atmospheric circulation were analysed in a 25-year simulation as well as climate means, interannual variability, trends and bias of temperature and precipitation. The model is able to reproduce the main atmospheric circulation patterns and mean surface variables, although some deficiencies were found such as an overestimation of temperature over central Argentina in most of seasons, an overestimation of austral winter precipitation over northeastern and central Argentina, an underestimation of precipitation in all the seasons over southeast of Brazil, an underestimation of the amplitude of the annual cycle temperature in some regions and an overestimation of the amplitude of the annual cycle of precipitation over mountainous areas. Model interannual variability was also assessed. In general, temperature variability is overestimated, whereas precipitation is underestimated. The spatial structure of the year-to-year variability of precipitation is correctly simulated by the model, although some patterns were misplaced. Most of regions present a cold seasonal bias reaching values of − 2 °C in some regions. It was found that precipitation biases are between 3 and − 1 mm day−1. In some regions and seasons observed and simulated temperature trends coincide, as in austral summer or spring, where the model and the observations show positive trends in most of regions. However, there is no agreement between observed and simulated precipitation trends in almost all the regions and seasons. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society