Alternative consequences and asymmetry of results: their importance for policy decision-making

IVAROLA LEONARDO

Journal of Economic Methodology

Routledge

Lugar: Amsterdam; Año: 2019 vol. 26 p. 147 - 162

1469-9427

In policy implementation, the knowledge that leads to its success is asnecessary as knowledge of its possible alternative paths. Cartwright andHardie´s (2012) approach accounts for the first, but ignores thechance that a policy may ?deviate? from the desired outcome. Theproblem lies in whether these deviations lead to substantially negativeconsequences. The present paper offers a conceptual account meant tocomplement Cartwright and Hardie?s approach. It is argued that apolicy-maker?s decision should not be based exclusively on a policy?schances of success, but also on the consequences of potentialalternative results, that is, on what there is to gain or to lose if a policysucceeds or fails.