CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Theaims of this study are: (i) to identify areas in the Andean Region where theclimate will remain stable enough for the survival of the study species; (ii)to analyze how climate change will affect these areas under different climatescenarios; (iii) to generate spatially explicit predictive maps of the expansionor retraction of these areas; and (iv) based on this information, to identifyareas with priority for conservation. The analysis was performed using presenceonly data for 14 Heteroptera and Odonata species. Current and future modelswere developed to identify areas where the climate would be suitable for smallponds, using Maxent v3.3.3k, with future models based on three different GCMsfor the 2050 period (scenarios A2a and B2a). Model performance was evaluatedusing the jackknife approach. Climatic niche breadth and climatic nichesimilarities were calculated through Levin?s concentration metrics and the Istatistic index (implemented in ENMTools), respectively. Maxent logisticoutputs were converted into binary presence/absence maps, based on the ?minimumtraining presence logistic threshold? and used to build species richness mapsfor each condition considered (present and future). Current and future modelswith areas climatically suitable for small ponds were developed. All the study speciesproved to be narrow specialists and share similar climatic spaces. Ourprojections suggest that four of the species would not find suitable climateconditions for survival in the future. The priority area for conservation,where most species would find suitable climate conditions, is located between33-47º south and 73º-70º west. We identified future loss of the priority areatowards the east and a small gain towards the north and south. The mostprobable situation for the year 2050 is a negativeprecipitation-evapotranspiration balance, and small ponds will probably be veryshort-lived or dry completely during summer, suggesting a drastic change inspecies assemblages and species richness of the region, which could become ahotspot of extinction.

enviar mensaje